Byron Donalds surges to massive lead in 2026 Florida GOP primary

Trump-backed Byron Donalds rockets to 39% lead over nearest rivals in St. Pete Polls — GOP insiders stunned

A new St. Pete Polls survey conducted between October 13–15, 2025, has sent shockwaves through Florida’s Republican circles: U.S. Representative Byron Donalds, buoyed by President Trump’s endorsement, leads the 2026 Florida GOP gubernatorial primary with an astonishing 39 percent of the vote, crushing rivals Jay Collins at 4 percent and Paul Renner at 3 percent, while a striking 54 percent of respondents remain undecided.


What’s more revealing are the head-to-head matchups once voters are informed of Trump’s backing and potential conflicts in endorsements. In one scenario, Donalds jumps to 52 percent to Collins’ 12 percent; in another, he commands 47 percent to Casey DeSantis’ 21 percent, with 36 percent still uncertain.

Trump’s early, enthusiastic endorsement of Donalds, which came before his campaign launch, is proving to be a political lightning rod. In February 2025, Donalds declared his candidacy for governor of Florida, becoming one of the first to enter the race. His name recognition and fundraising edge have grown steadily, and the poll numbers today reflect the rapid ascent of a candidate once seen as an outsider.


His dominance raises immediate questions: can any GOP challenger meaningfully close the gap before filing deadlines? Could Donalds clinch the nomination long before the convention? And how will other high-profile names—like Casey DeSantis (the current governor’s wife), Jay Collins, or Renner—respond to this formidable ascendancy?


Political insiders note that Florida’s 2026 race is already different from typical gubernatorial contests. With eight years of Ron DeSantis’s governorship concluding, the Republican bench is deep yet untested. Many believed the primary would be crowded; instead, Donalds has seized early control. “He’s capturing both the loyal Trump base and moderates looking for new leadership,” one strategist observed.

The pool of undecided voters presents both risk and reward. More than half of Republican primary voters currently say they aren’t confident in their pick, leaving room for shifts—but also entrenching Donalds’ advantage if he holds momentum. If his team can maintain discipline, fundraising, and messaging, the path to nomination looks clear.


It’s also telling that when voters were made aware of Trump’s endorsement and potential rival backings, Donalds’s numbers jumped dramatically. That signals not only the power of Trump’s brand in Republican primaries, but also that voters are paying attention to endorsements more than ever. In contrast, when bifurcated matchups were set up against Collins or DeSantis, Donalds’s dominance remained firm.


Competitors like Renner and Collins face the immediate task of carving out identity and name recall. Renner, former House Speaker, brings legislative experience, while Collins as lieutenant governor could appeal to voters seeking continuity. But both lag far behind and must overcome the dual challenge of competing against a favorite and raising their profiles among the undecided.


Of course, polls represent moments in time, and campaigns live or die by how they react to surprises: debate performances, endorsements, media stumbles, or shifts in public mood. But Donalds starting with nearly four times the support of his closest rival is a strong tactician’s opening gambit—one that could intimidate others into conceding early or forcing realignments in strategy.

For Republican voters across Florida, this is now more than a contest for governor—it’s a referendum on Trump’s enduring influence, the direction of party leadership post-DeSantis, and who can best unite the base and independent conservatives. For Donalds himself, it’s the moment of truth: maintain composure under new expectations or falter under growing pressure.


As Florida’s political stage sets for 2026, Byron Donalds is not just a name in the field—he appears to be the candidate to beat. The coming months will show if that lead is durable or fleeting, but for now, the narrative has shifted.
















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